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Valur Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 19 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 18:00

Valur Reykjavik

PPG 1.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

KA Akureyri

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.6% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-14.5%0-23.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.7%1-19.2%1-26.4%1-32.9%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.8%2-19.4%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.6%3-16.4%3-24.4%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-15.2%4+-23.6%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 48.8% 2.05 +2.9%

Draw 22.3% 26.0% 3.85 -8.5%

Away win 27.5% 34.7% 2.88 -12.5%

Over 2.5 64.6% 75.2% 1.33 -14.1%

Over 3.5 42.6% 55.6% 1.80 -23.3%

BTTS 63.3% 78.1% 1.28 -19.0%

Home O1.5 56.1% 65.4% 1.53 -14.2%

Away O1.5 42.6% 55.6% 1.80 -23.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.3%

H 50% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 1–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valur Reykjavik2.0

KA Akureyri1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VALUR REYKJAVIK · PPG 1.11

KA AKUREYRI · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Valur Reykjavik (H) 50.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +2.9%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -8.5%

KA Akureyri (A) 27.5%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valur Reykjavik face KA Akureyri in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valur Reykjavik a 50% chance, the draw 22% and KA Akureyri 28%, so Valur Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Valur Reykjavik and 1.4 for KA Akureyri (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valur Reykjavik are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.89 for KA Akureyri.

Valur Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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