Today / Iceland - Úrvalsdeild / Breidablik vs Fram Reykjavik

Breidablik vs Fram Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 20 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 19:15

Breidablik

PPG 2.11 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLL

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Fram Reykjavik

PPG 2.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 69.6% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-11.5%0-21.8%0-31.5%0-4+1.6%1 1-01.7%1-14.1%1-24.9%1-33.9%1-4+4.1%2 2-02.3%2-15.4%2-26.5%2-35.2%2-4+5.5%3 3-02.0%3-14.8%3-25.7%3-34.6%3-4+4.8%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-16.0%4+-27.2%4+-35.7%4+-4+6.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 40.0% 2.50 +9.8%

Draw 19.3% 25.0% 4.00 -13.7%

Away win 36.8% 44.4% 2.25 -17.2%

Over 2.5 76.6% 76.9% 1.30 -0.4%

Over 3.5 56.2% 56.5% 1.77 -0.5%

BTTS 69.6% 78.1% 1.28 -10.9%

Home O1.5 65.8% 59.9% 1.67 +9.9%

Away O1.5 67.8% 63.7% 1.57 +6.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -8.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob69.6%

H 44% / xG 2.6-2.4 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.5%

#2 3–2 5.7%

#3 2–1 5.4%

#4 2–3 5.2%

#5 1–2 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Breidablik2.6

Fram Reykjavik2.4

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.6% · O3.5 PROB 56.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BREIDABLIK · PPG 2.11

FRAM REYKJAVIK · PPG 2.22

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Breidablik (H) 43.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +9.8%

Draw 19.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -13.7%

Fram Reykjavik (A) 36.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Breidablik face Fram Reykjavik in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Breidablik a 44% chance, the draw 19% and Fram Reykjavik 37%, so Breidablik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Breidablik and 2.4 for Fram Reykjavik (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Breidablik are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 2.22 for Fram Reykjavik. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +17.6%. This match finished 3-4.

Breidablik vs Fram Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iceland - Úrvalsdeild Predictions