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Fram Reykjavik vs Stjarnan Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 19 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 19:15

Fram Reykjavik

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Stjarnan

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 80.3% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5% — a clear edge.

+10.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-11.2%0-21.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-02.3%1-13.9%1-23.3%1-31.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-03.8%2-16.4%2-25.3%2-33.0%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.1%3-16.9%3-25.8%3-33.3%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-112.9%4+-210.8%4+-36.1%4+-4+3.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.5% 54.1% 1.85 +17.5%

Draw 15.6% 24.4% 4.10 -21.6%

Away win 20.9% 32.3% 3.10 -21.1%

Over 2.5 76.3% 80.0% 1.25 -4.6%

Over 3.5 54.6% 61.7% 1.62 -11.6%

BTTS 69.4% 82.0% 1.22 -15.3%

Home O1.5 80.3% 72.5% 1.38 +10.8%

Away O1.5 47.7% 58.8% 1.70 -18.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 77%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob69.4%

H 64% / xG 3.3-1.7 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 6.9%

#2 2–1 6.4%

#3 3–2 5.8%

#4 4–1 5.7%

#5 2–2 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fram Reykjavik3.3

Stjarnan1.7

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.3% · O3.5 PROB 54.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FRAM REYKJAVIK · PPG 1.89

STJARNAN · PPG 1.22

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.59 for Home, form 1.89 vs 1.22 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Fram Reykjavik (H) 63.5%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +17.5%

Draw 15.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -21.6%

Stjarnan (A) 20.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -21.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fram Reykjavik face Stjarnan in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fram Reykjavik a 64% chance, the draw 16% and Stjarnan 21%, so Fram Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Fram Reykjavik and 1.7 for Stjarnan (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fram Reykjavik are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.22 for Stjarnan. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +20.3%.

Fram Reykjavik vs Stjarnan Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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