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KA Akureyri vs KR Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 17:00

KA Akureyri

PPG 0.78 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLD

3 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

KR Reykjavik

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 76.0% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-12.3%0-23.4%0-33.4%0-4+5.1%1 1-01.5%1-14.4%1-26.5%1-36.4%1-4+9.6%2 2-01.4%2-14.2%2-26.2%2-36.0%2-4+9.1%3 3-00.9%3-12.7%3-23.9%3-33.8%3-4+5.8%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.9%4+-22.8%4+-32.8%4+-4+4.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.1% 23.8% 4.20 +5.8%

Draw 17.1% 20.0% 5.00 -8.7%

Away win 56.8% 69.4% 1.44 -18.2%

Over 2.5 76.0% 87.7% 1.14 -13.4%

Over 3.5 55.5% 73.5% 1.36 -24.5%

BTTS 69.1% 83.3% 1.20 -17.1%

Home O1.5 54.9% 55.6% 1.80 -1.2%

Away O1.5 70.0% 83.3% 1.20 -16.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -8.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-5

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob69.1%

A 57% / xG 1.9-2.9 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 6.5%

#2 1–3 6.4%

#3 2–3 6.0%

#4 2–2 6.2%

#5 1–1 4.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KA Akureyri1.9

KR Reykjavik2.9

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.0% · O3.5 PROB 55.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KA AKUREYRI · PPG 0.78

KR REYKJAVIK · PPG 1.56

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.04 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

KA Akureyri (H) 26.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +5.8%

Draw 17.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -8.7%

KR Reykjavik (A) 56.8%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

KA Akureyri face KR Reykjavik in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KA Akureyri a 26% chance, the draw 17% and KR Reykjavik 57%, so KR Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for KA Akureyri and 2.9 for KR Reykjavik (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KA Akureyri are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 1.56 for KR Reykjavik. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.7%. This match finished 3-5.

KA Akureyri vs KR Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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