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KR Reykjavik vs Breidablik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 18:00

KR Reykjavik

PPG 2.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Breidablik

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 80.7% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-10.9%0-20.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.3%1 1-01.7%1-13.0%1-22.8%1-31.7%1-4+1.2%2 2-02.9%2-15.4%2-24.9%2-33.0%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.5%3-16.3%3-25.8%3-33.5%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-07.6%4+-113.9%4+-212.7%4+-37.7%4+-4+5.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.5% 66.7% 1.50 -4.8%

Draw 15.6% 20.8% 4.80 -15.1%

Away win 20.9% 22.2% 4.50 -3.6%

Over 2.5 80.7% 85.5% 1.17 -5.6%

Over 3.5 57.7% 70.4% 1.42 -18.1%

BTTS 69.4% 83.3% 1.20 -16.7%

Home O1.5 80.3% 84.7% 1.18 -5.3%

Away O1.5 50.5% 54.6% 1.83 -7.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.4%

H 64% / xG 3.5-1.8 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 6.3%

#2 3–2 5.8%

#3 4–1 5.6%

#4 2–1 5.4%

#5 4–2 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KR Reykjavik3.5

Breidablik1.8

COMBINED 5.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.7% · O3.5 PROB 57.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KR REYKJAVIK · PPG 2.78

BREIDABLIK · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.71 for Home, form 2.78 vs 1.11 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

KR Reykjavik (H) 63.5%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -4.8%

Draw 15.6%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -15.1%

Breidablik (A) 20.9%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

KR Reykjavik face Breidablik in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KR Reykjavik a 64% chance, the draw 16% and Breidablik 21%, so KR Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for KR Reykjavik and 1.8 for Breidablik (5.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KR Reykjavik are averaging 2.78 points per game versus 1.11 for Breidablik.

KR Reykjavik vs Breidablik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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