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Keflavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 17:00

Keflavik

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-14.5%0-22.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.3%1-19.3%1-25.9%1-32.5%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-19.6%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.2%3-16.7%3-24.2%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-15.6%4+-23.6%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 51.3% 1.95 +3.9%

Draw 22.6% 26.3% 3.80 -8.5%

Away win 24.1% 34.5% 2.90 -18.1%

Over 2.5 63.1% 66.7% 1.50 -5.3%

Over 3.5 39.4% 47.6% 2.10 -17.3%

BTTS 61.3% 69.4% 1.44 -11.7%

Home O1.5 59.6% 59.9% 1.67 -0.5%

Away O1.5 37.3% 47.6% 2.10 -21.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -8.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.3%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 1–2 5.9%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Keflavik2.1

IBV Vestmannaeyjar1.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KEFLAVIK · PPG 1.67

IBV VESTMANNAEYJAR · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Keflavik (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +3.9%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.5%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (A) 24.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -18.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Keflavik face IBV Vestmannaeyjar in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Keflavik a 53% chance, the draw 23% and IBV Vestmannaeyjar 24%, so Keflavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Keflavik and 1.3 for IBV Vestmannaeyjar (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Keflavik are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.67 for IBV Vestmannaeyjar. This match finished 1-0.

Keflavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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