Today / Iceland - Úrvalsdeild / IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Thor Akureyri

IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Thor Akureyri Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 17:00

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

PPG 1.10 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Thor Akureyri

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-13.5%0-22.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.3%1-18.2%1-24.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.6%2-19.6%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.7%3-17.5%3-24.2%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-17.6%4+-24.3%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.7% 59.9% 1.67 -5.3%

Draw 21.6% 26.3% 3.80 -10.8%

Away win 21.7% 25.0% 4.00 -7.9%

Over 2.5 64.2% 69.4% 1.44 -7.5%

Over 3.5 43.2% 47.6% 2.10 -9.3%

BTTS 60.8% 69.4% 1.44 -12.4%

Home O1.5 65.8% 65.4% 1.53 +0.7%

Away O1.5 33.0% 40.0% 2.50 -17.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -8.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.8%

H 57% / xG 2.3-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 1–2 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IBV Vestmannaeyjar2.3

Thor Akureyri1.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

IBV VESTMANNAEYJAR · PPG 1.10

THOR AKUREYRI · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.22 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (H) 56.7%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -5.3%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -10.8%

Thor Akureyri (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

IBV Vestmannaeyjar face Thor Akureyri in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IBV Vestmannaeyjar a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Thor Akureyri 22%, so IBV Vestmannaeyjar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for IBV Vestmannaeyjar and 1.1 for Thor Akureyri (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IBV Vestmannaeyjar are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 0.50 for Thor Akureyri. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +0.7%. This match finished 0-1.

IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Thor Akureyri Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iceland - Úrvalsdeild Predictions