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IA Akranes vs FH hafnarfjordur Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 17:00

IA Akranes

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

FH hafnarfjordur

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-15.1%0-23.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.4%1-110.0%1-26.0%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.8%2-25.9%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.3%3-16.4%3-23.8%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-14.9%4+-22.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 51.3% 1.95 +3.5%

Draw 22.5% 27.8% 3.60 -11.4%

Away win 24.4% 33.3% 3.00 -16.1%

Over 2.5 62.5% 73.5% 1.36 -15.0%

Over 3.5 38.5% 54.6% 1.83 -29.5%

BTTS 61.3% 73.5% 1.36 -16.6%

Home O1.5 54.9% 63.7% 1.57 -13.8%

Away O1.5 36.6% 52.4% 1.91 -30.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -8.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.3%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 1–0 8.4%

#5 1–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IA Akranes2.0

FH hafnarfjordur1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.5% · O3.5 PROB 38.5%

Form & verdict PPG

IA AKRANES · PPG 1.33

FH HAFNARFJORDUR · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

IA Akranes (H) 53.1%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +3.5%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.4%

FH hafnarfjordur (A) 24.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -16.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

IA Akranes face FH hafnarfjordur in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IA Akranes a 53% chance, the draw 23% and FH hafnarfjordur 24%, so IA Akranes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for IA Akranes and 1.2 for FH hafnarfjordur (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IA Akranes are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for FH hafnarfjordur. This match finished 1-1.

IA Akranes vs FH hafnarfjordur Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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