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Breidablik vs Stjarnan Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 21 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 19:15

Breidablik

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Stjarnan

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-12.8%0-22.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-04.9%1-17.1%1-25.1%1-32.4%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.1%2-18.8%2-26.3%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-05.1%3-17.3%3-25.2%3-32.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-18.2%4+-25.9%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 54.1% 1.85 -2.1%

Draw 19.6% 24.4% 4.10 -11.8%

Away win 27.5% 32.3% 3.10 -8.8%

Over 2.5 68.4% 78.1% 1.28 -12.4%

Over 3.5 49.4% 58.8% 1.70 -16.0%

BTTS 63.5% 80.0% 1.25 -20.6%

Home O1.5 66.3% 70.4% 1.42 -5.9%

Away O1.5 42.2% 55.6% 1.80 -24.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -8.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.5%

H 53% / xG 2.5-1.4 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.8%

#2 1–1 7.1%

#3 1–2 5.1%

#4 3–1 7.3%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Breidablik2.5

Stjarnan1.4

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BREIDABLIK · PPG 1.90

STJARNAN · PPG 1.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.05 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Breidablik (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -2.1%

Draw 19.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -11.8%

Stjarnan (A) 27.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Breidablik face Stjarnan in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Breidablik a 53% chance, the draw 20% and Stjarnan 28%, so Breidablik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Breidablik and 1.4 for Stjarnan (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Breidablik are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.10 for Stjarnan. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +11.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Breidablik vs Stjarnan Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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