Today / Iceland - Úrvalsdeild / FH hafnarfjordur vs Keflavik

FH hafnarfjordur vs Keflavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 17:00

FH hafnarfjordur

PPG 0.80 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Keflavik

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-18.2%0-25.5%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.9%1-111.9%1-28.0%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.5%2-18.7%2-25.8%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.1%3-14.2%3-22.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.1% 47.6% 2.10 -17.9%

Draw 25.3% 26.3% 3.80 -2.3%

Away win 35.6% 35.7% 2.80 -0.3%

Over 2.5 53.5% 72.5% 1.38 -26.2%

Over 3.5 31.5% 50.0% 2.00 -37.0%

BTTS 55.0% 75.2% 1.33 -26.9%

Home O1.5 40.1% 61.7% 1.62 -35.0%

Away O1.5 40.9% 54.1% 1.85 -24.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -8.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.0%

H 39% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1✓ 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 1–0 8.9%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FH hafnarfjordur1.5

Keflavik1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FH HAFNARFJORDUR · PPG 0.80

KEFLAVIK · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.11 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FH hafnarfjordur (H) 39.1%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -17.9%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -2.3%

Keflavik (A) 35.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

FH hafnarfjordur face Keflavik in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FH hafnarfjordur a 39% chance, the draw 25% and Keflavik 36%, so FH hafnarfjordur are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for FH hafnarfjordur and 1.3 for Keflavik (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FH hafnarfjordur are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.00 for Keflavik. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +4.8%. This match finished 2-1.

FH hafnarfjordur vs Keflavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iceland - Úrvalsdeild Predictions