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Fram Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 17:00

Fram Reykjavik

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

KA Akureyri

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 76.6% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-11.3%0-21.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.3%1 1-02.7%1-14.1%1-23.2%1-31.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-04.4%2-16.7%2-25.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.8%3-17.3%3-25.6%3-32.9%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-08.8%4+-113.6%4+-210.5%4+-35.4%4+-4+2.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.9% 67.6% 1.48 -5.4%

Draw 15.3% 20.8% 4.80 -15.9%

Away win 20.8% 21.7% 4.60 -2.6%

Over 2.5 76.6% 82.0% 1.22 -6.6%

Over 3.5 56.2% 61.7% 1.62 -9.0%

BTTS 69.6% 76.9% 1.30 -9.5%

Home O1.5 77.3% 80.0% 1.25 -3.4%

Away O1.5 47.9% 47.6% 2.10 +0.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -8.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 75%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob69.6%

H 64% / xG 3.3-1.5 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.3%

#2 2–1 6.7%

#3 4–1 6.0%

#4 2–2✓ 5.2%

#5 3–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fram Reykjavik3.3

KA Akureyri1.5

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.6% · O3.5 PROB 56.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FRAM REYKJAVIK · PPG 2.00

KA AKUREYRI · PPG 0.90

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.73 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.90 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Fram Reykjavik (H) 63.9%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -5.4%

Draw 15.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -15.9%

KA Akureyri (A) 20.8%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fram Reykjavik face KA Akureyri in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fram Reykjavik a 64% chance, the draw 15% and KA Akureyri 21%, so Fram Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Fram Reykjavik and 1.5 for KA Akureyri (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fram Reykjavik are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.90 for KA Akureyri. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +16.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Fram Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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