Today / Iceland - Úrvalsdeild / Valur Reykjavik vs IA Akranes

Valur Reykjavik vs IA Akranes Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 19:15

Valur Reykjavik

PPG 1.10 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

IA Akranes

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-13.8%0-23.4%0-32.0%0-4+1.3%1 1-04.3%1-17.8%1-27.0%1-34.2%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.5%2-18.1%2-27.2%2-34.3%2-4+2.9%3 3-03.1%3-15.6%3-25.0%3-33.0%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-14.7%4+-24.2%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 42.6% 2.35 +2.7%

Draw 21.6% 25.0% 4.00 -8.2%

Away win 34.7% 42.6% 2.35 -18.4%

Over 2.5 68.2% 80.0% 1.25 -14.8%

Over 3.5 48.0% 60.6% 1.65 -20.8%

BTTS 63.1% 82.0% 1.22 -23.0%

Home O1.5 59.6% 65.4% 1.53 -8.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 65.4% 1.53 -26.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -8.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.1%

H 44% / xG 2.1-1.8 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.8%

#2 2–1 8.1%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–2✓ 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valur Reykjavik2.1

IA Akranes1.8

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.0%

Form & verdict PPG

VALUR REYKJAVIK · PPG 1.10

IA AKRANES · PPG 1.30

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Valur Reykjavik (H) 43.7%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +2.7%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -8.2%

IA Akranes (A) 34.7%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valur Reykjavik face IA Akranes in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valur Reykjavik a 44% chance, the draw 22% and IA Akranes 35%, so Valur Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Valur Reykjavik and 1.8 for IA Akranes (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valur Reykjavik are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 1.30 for IA Akranes. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +1.8%. This match finished 2-2.

Valur Reykjavik vs IA Akranes Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iceland - Úrvalsdeild Predictions