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Vikingur Reykjavik vs Valur Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 19:15

Vikingur Reykjavik

PPG 2.56 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Valur Reykjavik

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.4% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-11.2%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.2%1-14.1%1-22.0%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.2%2-17.0%2-23.4%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.2%3-18.0%3-23.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-016.8%4+-116.5%4+-28.1%4+-32.6%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.3% 80.0% 1.25 -14.6%

Draw 15.8% 16.7% 6.00 -3.1%

Away win 15.9% 14.3% 7.00 +6.8%

Over 2.5 72.4% 82.0% 1.22 -11.7%

Over 3.5 51.6% 63.7% 1.57 -19.0%

BTTS 61.3% 66.7% 1.50 -8.1%

Home O1.5 78.4% 83.3% 1.20 -5.9%

Away O1.5 28.2% 33.3% 3.00 -9.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -8.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob61.3%

H 68% / xG 3.4-1.0 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 8.2%

#2 3–1 8.0%

#3 1–1 4.1%

#4 2–0✓ 7.2%

#5 4–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vikingur Reykjavik3.4

Valur Reykjavik1.0

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.4% · O3.5 PROB 51.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VIKINGUR REYKJAVIK · PPG 2.56

VALUR REYKJAVIK · PPG 1.33

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.45 for Home, form 2.56 vs 1.33 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Vikingur Reykjavik (H) 68.3%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -14.6%

Draw 15.8%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -3.1%

Valur Reykjavik (A) 15.9%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +6.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vikingur Reykjavik face Valur Reykjavik in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vikingur Reykjavik a 68% chance, the draw 16% and Valur Reykjavik 16%, so Vikingur Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Vikingur Reykjavik and 1.0 for Valur Reykjavik (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vikingur Reykjavik are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 1.33 for Valur Reykjavik. This match finished 2-0.

Vikingur Reykjavik vs Valur Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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