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KR Reykjavik vs Vikingur Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 21 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 17:30

KR Reykjavik

PPG 2.60 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Vikingur Reykjavik

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 6.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 83.0% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.2%0-10.7%0-21.3%0-31.6%0-4+3.8%1 1-00.5%1-11.9%1-23.4%1-34.1%1-4+9.7%2 2-00.7%2-12.4%2-24.4%2-35.3%2-4+12.4%3 3-00.6%3-12.1%3-23.8%3-34.6%3-4+10.7%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-12.5%4+-24.5%4+-35.5%4+-4+12.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.1% 37.7% 2.65 -13.7%

Draw 15.2% 23.8% 4.20 -21.7%

Away win 55.8% 48.8% 2.05 +14.4%

Over 2.5 83.0% 83.3% 1.20 -0.4%

Over 3.5 70.3% 67.6% 1.48 +4.0%

BTTS 80.2% 84.7% 1.18 -5.4%

Home O1.5 66.3% 66.7% 1.50 -0.5%

Away O1.5 88.0% 73.5% 1.36 +19.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -8.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)3.6 BTTS prob80.2%

A 56% / xG 2.6-3.6 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 80%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–3 5.3%

#2 2–4 4.8%

#3 3–3 4.6%

#4 3–2 3.8%

#5 2–2 4.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KR Reykjavik2.6

Vikingur Reykjavik3.6

COMBINED 6.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 83.0% · O3.5 PROB 70.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KR REYKJAVIK · PPG 2.60

VIKINGUR REYKJAVIK · PPG 2.50

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.06 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

KR Reykjavik (H) 29.1%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -13.7%

Draw 15.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -21.7%

Vikingur Reykjavik (A) 55.8%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

KR Reykjavik face Vikingur Reykjavik in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KR Reykjavik a 29% chance, the draw 15% and Vikingur Reykjavik 56%, so Vikingur Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for KR Reykjavik and 3.6 for Vikingur Reykjavik (6.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-3. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 80% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KR Reykjavik are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 2.50 for Vikingur Reykjavik. The best value bet our model finds is TT_AwayO25, with an expected value of +51.1%. This match finished 1-1.

KR Reykjavik vs Vikingur Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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