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Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 17:00

Stjarnan

PPG 1.11 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWW

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Thor Akureyri

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-12.9%0-21.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.2%1-17.4%1-24.3%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.9%2-19.3%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.6%3-17.8%3-24.6%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-07.6%4+-18.9%4+-25.3%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.4% 71.4% 1.40 -21.0%

Draw 21.6% 20.8% 4.80 +2.2%

Away win 22.0% 20.0% 5.00 +6.0%

Over 2.5 64.9% 78.1% 1.28 -16.9%

Over 3.5 43.5% 59.9% 1.67 -27.4%

BTTS 61.3% 71.4% 1.40 -14.2%

Home O1.5 65.1% 78.1% 1.28 -16.7%

Away O1.5 35.6% 40.0% 2.50 -11.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -8.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.3%

H 56% / xG 2.5-1.2 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.4%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 2–0 7.9%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 1–2 4.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stjarnan2.5

Thor Akureyri1.2

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.9% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

STJARNAN · PPG 1.11

THOR AKUREYRI · PPG 0.56

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.34 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Stjarnan (H) 56.4%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -21.0%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +2.2%

Thor Akureyri (A) 22.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +6.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stjarnan face Thor Akureyri in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stjarnan a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Thor Akureyri 22%, so Stjarnan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Stjarnan and 1.2 for Thor Akureyri (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stjarnan are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.56 for Thor Akureyri. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +3.0%. This match finished 4-2.

Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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