Leagues / GERMANY / Regionalliga - Bayern
Regionalliga - Bayern
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 53 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
56.6%
1X2
30/53
58.5%
O/U 2.5
31/53
50.9%
BTTS
27/53
28.3%
Exact score
15/53
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
27
Settled
51.9%
Hit rate
14/27
1.59
Avg odds
-17.4%
ROI
-4.7u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=9 77.8% HIT · AVG 1.54 · +20.1% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=8 75.0% HIT · AVG 1.73 · +24.3% ROI
BTTS · N=8 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.57 · -100.0% ROI
HOME WIN · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.38 · -22.5% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
1
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
2
Bets
100%
Hit
+52.5%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
7
Bets
43%
Hit
-24.0%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
17
Bets
53%
Hit
-18.1%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
May 2026 // 15 PICKS · 7 HIT · 8 MISS
16 MAY Aubstadt vs Bayreuth BTTS -14% 4–0 MISS16 MAY Aschaffenburg vs Bayern Munich B BTTS -13% 0–5 MISS16 MAY Ansbach vs Wurzburger K. Away -14% 1–4 HIT16 MAY Vilzing vs Greuther F. B Over 2.5 -15% 5–2 HIT16 MAY Unterhaching vs W. Burghausen Over 2.5 -16% 4–0 HIT16 MAY Nurnberg B vs Hankofen-H. Home -18% 2–2 MISS16 MAY Illertissen vs Schwaben A. Over 2.5 -8% 2–1 HIT16 MAY Eichstatt vs Buchbach Over 2.5 -13% 0–1 MISS16 MAY Augsburg B vs Memmingen BTTS -19% 0–1 MISS9 MAY W. Burghausen vs Ansbach Over 2.5 3–0 HIT9 MAY Greuther F. B vs Augsburg B BTTS 0–1 MISS9 MAY Bayreuth vs Nurnberg B BTTS 0–0 MISS9 MAY Wurzburger K. vs Unterhaching BTTS 4–0 MISS9 MAY Schwaben A. vs Aubstadt BTTS 3–1 HIT8 MAY Memmingen vs Vilzing BTTS 1–1 HIT