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Ansbach vs Wurzburger K. Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Ansbach

PPG 1.69 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Wurzburger K.

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-19.7%0-210.0%0-36.9%0-4+5.8%1 1-04.6%1-19.6%1-29.9%1-36.9%1-4+5.8%2 2-02.3%2-14.7%2-24.9%2-33.4%2-4+2.8%3 3-00.8%3-11.6%3-21.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.2% 17.4% 5.75 -11.0%

Draw 24.3% 21.7% 4.60 +7.1%

Away win 61.5% 71.4% 1.40 -13.9%

Over 2.5 59.3% 70.4% 1.42 -15.8%

Over 3.5 36.7% 48.8% 2.05 -24.8%

BTTS 54.6% 64.5% 1.55 -15.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob54.6%

A 62% / xG 1.0-2.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 0–2 10.0%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 9.7%

#5 0–3 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ansbach1.0

Wurzburger K.2.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ANSBACH · PPG 1.69

WURZBURGER K. · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.69) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Ansbach (H) 14.2%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -11.0%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +7.1%

Wurzburger K. (A) 61.5%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ansbach face Wurzburger K. in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ansbach a 14% chance, the draw 24% and Wurzburger K. 62%, so Wurzburger K. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Ansbach and 2.1 for Wurzburger K. (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ansbach are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 2.00 for Wurzburger K.. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +7.1%. This match finished 1-4.

Ansbach vs Wurzburger K. Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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