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Nurnberg B vs Hankofen-H. Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Nurnberg B

PPG 2.44 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Hankofen-H.

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-12.0%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.7%1-15.8%1-21.9%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.3%2-18.1%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.5%3-17.6%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-016.1%4+-110.6%4+-23.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.2% 83.3% 1.20 -18.2%

Draw 22.6% 16.7% 6.00 +21.4%

Away win 9.2% 9.8% 10.25 -3.4%

Over 2.5 63.9% 85.5% 1.17 -25.2%

Over 3.5 45.8% 67.6% 1.48 -32.2%

BTTS 50.1% 70.4% 1.42 -28.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob50.1%

H 68% / xG 2.8-0.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.3%

#2 3–0 11.5%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 4–0 8.1%

#5 1–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nurnberg B2.8

Hankofen-H.0.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 45.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NURNBERG B · PPG 2.44

HANKOFEN-H. · PPG 0.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.44), Away POOR (0.56) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Nurnberg B (H) 68.2%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -18.2%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +21.4%

Hankofen-H. (A) 9.2%

ODDS 10.25 · IMPLIED 9.8% EV -3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nurnberg B face Hankofen-H. in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nurnberg B a 68% chance, the draw 23% and Hankofen-H. 9%, so Nurnberg B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Nurnberg B and 0.7 for Hankofen-H. (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nurnberg B are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 0.56 for Hankofen-H.. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +21.4%. This match finished 2-2.

Nurnberg B vs Hankofen-H. Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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