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Unterhaching vs W. Burghausen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Unterhaching

PPG 2.13 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

W. Burghausen

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-14.5%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.5%1-19.4%1-23.8%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.0%2-19.7%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.3%3-16.8%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-15.7%4+-22.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.6% 67.6% 1.48 -14.8%

Draw 23.5% 22.7% 4.40 +2.0%

Away win 19.0% 20.0% 5.00 -3.0%

Over 2.5 59.1% 70.4% 1.42 -16.1%

Over 3.5 32.9% 48.8% 2.05 -32.6%

BTTS 51.6% 66.7% 1.50 -22.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 58% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.0%

#2 1–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 11.5%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 3–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Unterhaching2.1

W. Burghausen0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

UNTERHACHING · PPG 2.13

W. BURGHAUSEN · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs P(Home)=57.6%

Win probability 1X2

Unterhaching (H) 57.6%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -14.8%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +2.0%

W. Burghausen (A) 19.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Unterhaching face W. Burghausen in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Unterhaching a 58% chance, the draw 24% and W. Burghausen 19%, so Unterhaching are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Unterhaching and 0.8 for W. Burghausen (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Unterhaching are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 0.94 for W. Burghausen. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.0%. This match finished 4-0.

Unterhaching vs W. Burghausen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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