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W. Burghausen vs Ansbach Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 12:00

W. Burghausen

PPG 1.81 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Ansbach

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-14.9%0-23.5%0-31.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-06.6%1-19.5%1-26.9%1-33.3%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.4%2-19.2%2-26.7%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.1%3-16.0%3-24.3%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-14.5%4+-23.3%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% — — —

Draw 25.6% — — —

Away win 25.5% — — —

Over 2.5 61.3% — — —

Over 3.5 43.9% — — —

BTTS 58.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.8%

H 49% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

W. Burghausen1.9

Ansbach1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.9%

Form & verdict PPG

W. BURGHAUSEN · PPG 1.81

ANSBACH · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.81) > Away AVERAGE (1.19)

Win probability 1X2

W. Burghausen (H) 48.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ansbach (A) 25.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

W. Burghausen face Ansbach in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives W. Burghausen a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Ansbach 26%, so W. Burghausen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for W. Burghausen and 1.4 for Ansbach (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, W. Burghausen are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.19 for Ansbach. This match finished 3-0.

W. Burghausen vs Ansbach Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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