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Augsburg B vs Memmingen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Augsburg B

PPG 0.88 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Memmingen

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-111.1%0-27.1%0-33.0%0-4+1.3%1 1-010.1%1-112.9%1-28.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.9%2-17.5%2-24.8%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.3%3-12.9%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 59.5% 1.68 -39.9%

Draw 27.4% 26.0% 3.85 +3.3%

Away win 36.8% 24.4% 4.10 +50.9%

Over 2.5 47.6% 62.5% 1.60 -23.8%

Over 3.5 23.0% 40.0% 2.50 -25.5%

BTTS 51.6% 63.7% 1.57 -19.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 16%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob51.6%

A 37% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.7%

#3 0–1✓ 11.1%

#4 1–2 8.3%

#5 1–0 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Augsburg B1.2

Memmingen1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AUGSBURG B · PPG 0.88

MEMMINGEN · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.88) vs Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Augsburg B (H) 35.8%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -39.9%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +3.3%

Memmingen (A) 36.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +50.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Augsburg B face Memmingen in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Augsburg B a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Memmingen 37%, so Memmingen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Augsburg B and 1.3 for Memmingen (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Augsburg B are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 1.38 for Memmingen. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +50.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Augsburg B vs Memmingen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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