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Vilzing vs Greuther F. B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Vilzing

PPG 1.63 · HOME

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Greuther F. B

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-17.5%0-24.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.9%1-111.9%1-26.5%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.5%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.6%3-15.0%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.8%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 45.5% 2.20 +8.7%

Draw 25.9% 27.4% 3.65 -3.3%

Away win 24.7% 37.7% 2.65 -20.7%

Over 2.5 52.6% 61.7% 1.62 -14.8%

Over 3.5 28.1% 38.5% 2.60 -16.2%

BTTS 52.6% 66.7% 1.50 -21.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 2–0 8.7%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vilzing1.6

Greuther F. B1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VILZING · PPG 1.63

GREUTHER F. B · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.63) vs P(Home)=49.4%

Win probability 1X2

Vilzing (H) 49.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +8.7%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -3.3%

Greuther F. B (A) 24.7%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -20.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vilzing face Greuther F. B in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vilzing a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Greuther F. B 25%, so Vilzing are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Vilzing and 1.1 for Greuther F. B (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vilzing are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 0.81 for Greuther F. B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.7%. This match finished 5-2.

Vilzing vs Greuther F. B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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