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Schwaben A. vs Aubstadt Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 12:00

Schwaben A.

PPG 0.81 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Aubstadt

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.44) vs Home POOR (0.81)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-19.7%0-28.0%0-34.4%0-4+2.6%1 1-07.0%1-111.5%1-29.5%1-35.2%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.2%2-16.8%2-25.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.8%3 3-01.6%3-12.7%3-22.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.0% — — —

Draw 27.4% — — —

Away win 44.6% — — —

Over 2.5 53.1% — — —

Over 3.5 31.6% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.6%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 8.0%

#4 0–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Schwaben A.1.2

Aubstadt1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SCHWABEN A. · PPG 0.81

AUBSTADT · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.44) vs Home POOR (0.81)

Win probability 1X2

Schwaben A. (H) 28.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Aubstadt (A) 44.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Schwaben A. face Aubstadt in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Schwaben A. a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Aubstadt 45%, so Aubstadt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Schwaben A. and 1.6 for Aubstadt (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Schwaben A. are averaging 0.81 points per game versus 1.44 for Aubstadt. This match finished 3-1.

Schwaben A. vs Aubstadt Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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