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Aubstadt vs Bayreuth Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 10:00

Aubstadt

PPG 1.44 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Bayreuth

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-18.4%0-24.1%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.9%1-112.4%1-26.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.1%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.7%3-14.5%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.4% 45.5% 2.20 +6.5%

Draw 27.1% 29.0% 3.45 -3.9%

Away win 24.5% 35.7% 2.80 -18.8%

Over 2.5 47.6% 54.6% 1.83 -12.9%

Over 3.5 22.9% 32.3% 3.10 -17.4%

BTTS 51.6% 59.9% 1.67 -13.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 0–0 8.8%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aubstadt1.5

Bayreuth1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AUBSTADT · PPG 1.44

BAYREUTH · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.44) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Aubstadt (H) 48.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +6.5%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -3.9%

Bayreuth (A) 24.5%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aubstadt face Bayreuth in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aubstadt a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Bayreuth 25%, so Aubstadt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Aubstadt and 1.0 for Bayreuth (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aubstadt are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.88 for Bayreuth. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.5%. This match finished 4-0.

Aubstadt vs Bayreuth Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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