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Aschaffenburg vs Bayern Munich B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Aschaffenburg

PPG 0.63 · HOME

0 – 5

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Bayern Munich B

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-18.7%0-28.0%0-35.0%0-4+3.5%1 1-05.7%1-110.5%1-29.7%1-36.0%1-4+4.2%2 2-03.4%2-16.3%2-25.9%2-33.6%2-4+2.5%3 3-01.4%3-12.6%3-22.4%3-31.5%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.6% 41.7% 2.40 -18.8%

Draw 25.2% 27.4% 3.65 -4.8%

Away win 46.2% 41.7% 2.40 +10.9%

Over 2.5 59.1% 63.7% 1.57 -7.2%

Over 3.5 36.6% 40.8% 2.45 -10.3%

BTTS 59.7% 69.0% 1.45 -13.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-5

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob59.7%

A 46% / xG 1.2-1.8 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.0%

#4 0–1 8.7%

#5 2–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aschaffenburg1.2

Bayern Munich B1.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ASCHAFFENBURG · PPG 0.63

BAYERN MUNICH B · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.63), Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Aschaffenburg (H) 28.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -18.8%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -4.8%

Bayern Munich B (A) 46.2%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aschaffenburg face Bayern Munich B in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aschaffenburg a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Bayern Munich B 46%, so Bayern Munich B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Aschaffenburg and 1.8 for Bayern Munich B (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aschaffenburg are averaging 0.63 points per game versus 0.88 for Bayern Munich B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.9%. This match finished 0-5.

Aschaffenburg vs Bayern Munich B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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