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Illertissen vs Schwaben A. Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Illertissen

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Schwaben A.

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-13.8%0-21.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.4%1-18.6%1-24.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.5%2-19.8%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.3%3-17.4%3-23.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-17.2%4+-23.7%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.1% 63.7% 1.57 -13.5%

Draw 23.0% 25.3% 3.95 -5.5%

Away win 21.9% 21.1% 4.75 +2.4%

Over 2.5 61.4% 66.7% 1.50 -7.9%

Over 3.5 42.1% 45.5% 2.20 -7.4%

BTTS 58.8% 66.7% 1.50 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.8%

H 55% / xG 2.3-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–1✓ 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 3–1 7.4%

#5 3–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Illertissen2.3

Schwaben A.1.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ILLERTISSEN · PPG 1.75

SCHWABEN A. · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Illertissen (H) 55.1%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -13.5%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -5.5%

Schwaben A. (A) 21.9%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Illertissen face Schwaben A. in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Illertissen a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Schwaben A. 22%, so Illertissen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Illertissen and 1.0 for Schwaben A. (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Illertissen are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.13 for Schwaben A.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Illertissen vs Schwaben A. Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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