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Eichstatt vs Buchbach Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Eichstatt

PPG 1.63 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Buchbach

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-14.4%0-22.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.3%1-19.3%1-25.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-19.9%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.1%3-16.9%3-23.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-16.0%4+-23.4%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 65.4% 1.53 -19.1%

Draw 24.5% 23.8% 4.20 +1.7%

Away win 22.6% 21.1% 4.75 +4.4%

Over 2.5 61.4% 70.4% 1.42 -12.8%

Over 3.5 40.7% 48.8% 2.05 -16.6%

BTTS 59.7% 69.0% 1.45 -13.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.7%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 3–1 6.9%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eichstatt2.1

Buchbach1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.7%

Form & verdict PPG

EICHSTATT · PPG 1.63

BUCHBACH · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.63) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Eichstatt (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -19.1%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +1.7%

Buchbach (A) 22.6%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eichstatt face Buchbach in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eichstatt a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Buchbach 23%, so Eichstatt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Eichstatt and 1.1 for Buchbach (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eichstatt are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.13 for Buchbach. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Eichstatt vs Buchbach Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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