2. Bundesliga

GERMANY · 52 MATCHES TRACKED · 17 APR 2026 – 4 SEPT 2026

▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE

SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE

Upcoming 2. Bundesliga predictions

2 FIXTURES WITH ODDS · MODEL PICK, PROBABILITY AND EV PER MATCH

DateMatchPickProbOddsEV

4 SEPT16:30 Hannover 96 vs Karlsruher SC Over 2.5 56% 1.45 -18%4 SEPT16:30 Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli Over 2.5 64% 1.62 +3%

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 50 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

42.0%

1X2

21/50

56.0%

O/U 2.5

28/50

58.0%

BTTS

29/50

46.0%

Exact score

23/50

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

50.0%

Hit rate

5/10

1.76

Avg odds

-17.4%

ROI

-1.7u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

OVER 2.5 · N=4 75.0% HIT · AVG 1.60 · +20.5% ROI

HOME WIN · N=3 33.3% HIT · AVG 1.88 · -49.0% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 2.10 · -100.0% ROI

BTTS · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.57 · -100.0% ROI

HOME O1.5 · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.91 · +91.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

Hit

-100.0%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

75%

Hit

+24.5%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

50%

Hit

-18.0%

ROI

Match log

50 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

August 2026 // 4 PICKS · 2 HIT · 2 MISS

30 AUG SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hannover 96 BTTS -20% 0–1 MISS 30 AUG 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel Over 2.5 -3% 2–0 MISS 29 AUG 1. FC Nürnberg vs Arminia Bielefeld HO1.5 4–1 HIT 28 AUG Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC BTTS -15% 3–5 HIT

May 2026 // 11 PICKS · 7 HIT · 4 MISS

17 MAY Elversberg vs Preuss. Munster Over 2.5 -15% 3–0 HIT 17 MAY Darmstadt vs Paderborn BTTS -21% 0–2 MISS 17 MAY Bielefeld vs Hertha Berlin BTTS -21% 6–1 HIT 17 MAY Dynamo Dresden vs Holstein Kiel BTTS -10% 2–1 HIT 17 MAY Schalke 04 vs Braunschweig Home -2% 1–0 HIT 17 MAY Magdeburg vs Kaiserslautern Over 2.5 -11% 0–1 MISS 17 MAY Karlsruher SC vs Bochum Over 2.5 -17% 1–2 HIT 17 MAY Hannover 96 vs FC Nurnberg BTTS -18% 3–3 HIT 17 MAY Greuther Furth vs Dusseldorf BTTS -13% 3–0 MISS 10 MAY Preuss. Munster vs Darmstadt Over 2.5 -5% 1–1 MISS 10 MAY Hertha Berlin vs Greuther Furth Over 2.5 -15% 2–1 HIT