Leagues / GERMANY / 2. Bundesliga
2. Bundesliga
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 46 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
41.3%
1X2
19/46
56.5%
O/U 2.5
26/46
58.7%
BTTS
27/46
47.8%
Exact score
22/46
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
46
Settled
58.7%
Hit rate
27/46
1.53
Avg odds
-12.4%
ROI
-5.7u
Picks by market
BTTS · N=22 63.6% HIT · AVG 1.48 · -6.1% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=17 58.8% HIT · AVG 1.50 · -13.4% ROI
HOME WIN · N=6 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.72 · -18.2% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 2.10 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
3
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
2
Bets
50%
Hit
-32.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
9
Bets
56%
Hit
-15.9%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
32
Bets
66%
Hit
-2.0%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
May 2026 // 15 PICKS · 10 HIT · 5 MISS
17 MAY Bielefeld vs Hertha Berlin BTTS -21% 6–1 HIT17 MAY Schalke 04 vs Braunschweig Home -2% 1–0 HIT17 MAY Magdeburg vs Kaiserslautern Over 2.5 -11% 0–1 MISS17 MAY Karlsruher SC vs Bochum Over 2.5 -17% 1–2 HIT17 MAY Hannover 96 vs FC Nurnberg BTTS -18% 3–3 HIT17 MAY Greuther Furth vs Dusseldorf BTTS -13% 3–0 MISS17 MAY Elversberg vs Preuss. Munster Over 2.5 -15% 3–0 HIT17 MAY Dynamo Dresden vs Holstein Kiel BTTS -10% 2–1 HIT17 MAY Darmstadt vs Paderborn BTTS -21% 0–2 MISS10 MAY Hertha Berlin vs Greuther Furth Over 2.5 -15% 2–1 HIT10 MAY Preuss. Munster vs Darmstadt Over 2.5 -5% 1–1 MISS10 MAY Dusseldorf vs Elversberg BTTS -22% 3–1 HIT9 MAY Braunschweig vs Dynamo Dresden Over 2.5 +4% 2–1 HIT9 MAY Bochum vs Hannover 96 Over 2.5 -8% 1–1 MISS9 MAY Holstein Kiel vs Magdeburg Over 2.5 -14% 1–3 HIT