Today / Germany - 2. Bundesliga / Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli

Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Matchday 4 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 16:30

Arminia Bielefeld

PPG 1.77 · HOME

LAST 5

LWL ··

UPCOMING

FC St. Pauli

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDL ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.0%0-23.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.4%1-19.7%1-26.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-19.5%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.7%3-16.2%3-24.1%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-14.8%4+-23.2%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% 46.5% 2.15 +5.1%

Draw 22.8% 27.8% 3.60 -10.8%

Away win 28.3% 33.3% 3.00 -9.1%

Over 2.5 63.7% 61.7% 1.62 +3.2%

Over 3.5 40.4% 39.2% 2.55 +3.0%

BTTS 61.5% 66.7% 1.50 -7.8%

Home O1.5 55.8% 54.1% 1.85 +3.2%

Away O1.5 42.2% 44.4% 2.25 -5.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.5%

H 49% / xG 2.0-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–2 6.4%

#4 2–0 7.2%

#5 3–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arminia Bielefeld2.0

FC St. Pauli1.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ARMINIA BIELEFELD · PPG 1.77

FC ST. PAULI · PPG 1.42

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Arminia Bielefeld (H) 48.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +5.1%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -10.8%

FC St. Pauli (A) 28.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arminia Bielefeld face FC St. Pauli in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 49% chance, the draw 23% and FC St. Pauli 28%, so Arminia Bielefeld are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.3 for FC St. Pauli (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.42 for FC St. Pauli. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +17.4%.

Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Germany - 2. Bundesliga Predictions