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1. FC Nürnberg vs Arminia Bielefeld Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 18:30

1. FC Nürnberg

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

WWW ··

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Arminia Bielefeld

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWL ··

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 56.3% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-15.1%0-23.0%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.5%1-110.0%1-25.9%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.4%3-16.4%3-23.8%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-14.9%4+-22.9%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 46.5% 2.15 +13.7%

Draw 23.2% 27.8% 3.60 -9.9%

Away win 23.9% 33.3% 3.00 -17.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 60.6% 1.65 -1.5%

Over 3.5 36.7% 37.7% 2.65 -2.8%

BTTS 59.9% 65.4% 1.53 -8.3%

Home O1.5 56.3% 52.4% 1.91 +7.5%

Away O1.5 33.1% 43.5% 2.30 -23.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.9%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–0 8.5%

#5 1–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

1. FC Nürnberg2.0

Arminia Bielefeld1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

1. FC NÜRNBERG · PPG 1.92

ARMINIA BIELEFELD · PPG 0.85

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

1. FC Nürnberg (H) 52.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +13.7%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -9.9%

Arminia Bielefeld (A) 23.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -17.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

1. FC Nürnberg face Arminia Bielefeld in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Arminia Bielefeld 24%, so 1. FC Nürnberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.2 for Arminia Bielefeld (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, 1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 0.85 for Arminia Bielefeld. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.9%. This match finished 4-1.

1. FC Nürnberg vs Arminia Bielefeld Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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