Today / Germany - 2. Bundesliga / Hertha Berlin vs Greuther Furth

Hertha Berlin vs Greuther Furth Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Matchday 33 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 11:30

Hertha Berlin

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Greuther Furth

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 66% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-15.8%0-23.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.4%1-110.6%1-26.0%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.3%3-16.0%3-23.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-14.2%4+-22.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 54.6% 1.83 -9.8%

Draw 25.6% 24.4% 4.10 +3.0%

Away win 25.1% 28.2% 3.55 -6.5%

Over 2.5 59.3% 69.4% 1.44 -14.6%

Over 3.5 34.8% 47.6% 2.10 -26.9%

BTTS 57.4% 70.4% 1.42 -18.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob57.4%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1✓ 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 0–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hertha Berlin1.8

Greuther Furth1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HERTHA BERLIN · PPG 1.25

GREUTHER FURTH · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

66%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Hertha Berlin (H) 49.3%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -9.8%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +3.0%

Greuther Furth (A) 25.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hertha Berlin face Greuther Furth in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hertha Berlin a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Greuther Furth 25%, so Hertha Berlin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Hertha Berlin and 1.1 for Greuther Furth (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hertha Berlin are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.88 for Greuther Furth. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Hertha Berlin vs Greuther Furth Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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