Today / Germany - 2. Bundesliga / Dynamo Dresden vs Holstein Kiel

Dynamo Dresden vs Holstein Kiel Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Matchday 34 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:30

Dynamo Dresden

PPG 1.31 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Holstein Kiel

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 65% chance

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-16.4%0-24.2%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.3%1-110.9%1-27.2%1-33.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.1%2-19.3%2-26.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.1%3-15.3%3-23.5%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.4%4+-22.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.4% 58.8% 1.70 -17.7%

Draw 25.7% 25.3% 3.95 +0.9%

Away win 25.9% 23.1% 4.33 +7.3%

Over 2.5 59.1% 65.4% 1.53 -9.6%

Over 3.5 35.8% 43.5% 2.30 -17.7%

BTTS 59.7% 66.7% 1.50 -10.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1✓ 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dynamo Dresden1.7

Holstein Kiel1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 35.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DYNAMO DRESDEN · PPG 1.31

HOLSTEIN KIEL · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

65%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.31), Away AVERAGE (1.19)

Win probability 1X2

Dynamo Dresden (H) 48.4%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -17.7%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +0.9%

Holstein Kiel (A) 25.9%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +7.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dynamo Dresden face Holstein Kiel in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dynamo Dresden a 48% chance, the draw 26% and Holstein Kiel 26%, so Dynamo Dresden are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Dynamo Dresden and 1.3 for Holstein Kiel (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dynamo Dresden are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.19 for Holstein Kiel. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Dynamo Dresden vs Holstein Kiel Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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