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Schalke 04 vs Braunschweig Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Regular Season - 34 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:30

Schalke 04

PPG 2.44 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Braunschweig

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.2% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-15.7%0-22.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.5%1-110.4%1-24.0%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-19.6%2-23.7%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.6%3-15.9%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-14.1%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 54.1% 1.85 -1.6%

Draw 24.7% 26.0% 3.85 -2.9%

Away win 22.1% 27.0% 3.70 -10.9%

Over 2.5 52.6% 61.7% 1.62 -14.8%

Over 3.5 26.6% 39.2% 2.55 -19.3%

BTTS 51.0% 64.5% 1.55 -20.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -12.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.0%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.4%

#2 1–1 10.4%

#3 1–0✓ 13.5%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Schalke 041.8

Braunschweig0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 26.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SCHALKE 04 · PPG 2.44

BRAUNSCHWEIG · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.44) vs P(Home)=53.2%

Win probability 1X2

Schalke 04 (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -1.6%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -2.9%

Braunschweig (A) 22.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Schalke 04 face Braunschweig in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Schalke 04 a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Braunschweig 22%, so Schalke 04 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Schalke 04 and 0.8 for Braunschweig (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Schalke 04 are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 0.88 for Braunschweig. This match finished 1-0.

Schalke 04 vs Braunschweig Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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