Today / Germany - 2. Bundesliga / Karlsruher SC vs Bochum

Karlsruher SC vs Bochum Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Matchday 34 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:30

Karlsruher SC

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bochum

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 70% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-15.6%0-24.3%0-32.2%0-4+1.2%1 1-06.6%1-110.0%1-27.6%1-33.8%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.8%2-18.9%2-26.8%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.5%3-15.3%3-24.0%3-32.0%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.5%4+-22.7%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 39.2% 2.55 +13.0%

Draw 23.9% 25.3% 3.95 -3.4%

Away win 31.8% 42.0% 2.38 -24.3%

Over 2.5 61.4% 73.5% 1.36 -16.5%

Over 3.5 42.0% 52.4% 1.91 -19.8%

BTTS 59.7% 76.9% 1.30 -22.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.7%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2✓ 7.6%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karlsruher SC1.8

Bochum1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KARLSRUHER SC · PPG 1.88

BOCHUM · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

70%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=44.3%

Win probability 1X2

Karlsruher SC (H) 44.3%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +13.0%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -3.4%

Bochum (A) 31.8%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -24.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karlsruher SC face Bochum in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karlsruher SC a 44% chance, the draw 24% and Bochum 32%, so Karlsruher SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Karlsruher SC and 1.5 for Bochum (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karlsruher SC are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.75 for Bochum. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Karlsruher SC vs Bochum Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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