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Bielefeld vs Hertha Berlin Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Regular Season - 34 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:30

Bielefeld

PPG 1.44 · HOME

6 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Hertha Berlin

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.9% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-18.8%0-26.4%0-33.1%0-4+1.5%1 1-08.3%1-111.9%1-28.6%1-34.1%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.6%2-18.1%2-25.8%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.5%3-13.6%3-22.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 57.8% 1.73 -37.0%

Draw 26.2% 25.0% 4.00 +2.9%

Away win 37.4% 23.8% 4.20 +57.1%

Over 2.5 52.6% 72.5% 1.38 -27.4%

Over 3.5 30.7% 51.3% 1.95 -40.1%

BTTS 56.9% 72.5% 1.38 -21.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -12.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob56.9%

A 37% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–0 6.1%

#5 0–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bielefeld1.4

Hertha Berlin1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BIELEFELD · PPG 1.44

HERTHA BERLIN · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.44) vs Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Bielefeld (H) 36.4%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -37.0%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +2.9%

Hertha Berlin (A) 37.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +57.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bielefeld face Hertha Berlin in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bielefeld a 36% chance, the draw 26% and Hertha Berlin 37%, so Hertha Berlin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Bielefeld and 1.4 for Hertha Berlin (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bielefeld are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.75 for Hertha Berlin. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +57.1%. This match finished 6-1.

Bielefeld vs Hertha Berlin Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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