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Preuss. Munster vs Darmstadt Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Matchday 33 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 11:30

Preuss. Munster

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Darmstadt

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 63% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-18.1%0-27.3%0-34.4%0-4+3.0%1 1-05.8%1-110.5%1-29.5%1-35.7%1-4+3.9%2 2-03.8%2-16.8%2-26.2%2-33.7%2-4+2.5%3 3-01.6%3-12.9%3-22.7%3-31.6%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.6% 42.6% 2.35 -21.1%

Draw 27.0% 26.3% 3.80 +1.6%

Away win 45.4% 38.2% 2.62 +18.9%

Over 2.5 60.2% 63.7% 1.57 -5.5%

Over 3.5 37.7% 40.8% 2.45 -7.6%

BTTS 58.8% 67.6% 1.48 -13.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob58.8%

A 45% / xG 1.3-1.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.5%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.3%

#4 2–1 6.8%

#5 0–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Preuss. Munster1.3

Darmstadt1.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PREUSS. MUNSTER · PPG 1.00

DARMSTADT · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

63%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Preuss. Munster (H) 27.6%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -21.1%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +1.6%

Darmstadt (A) 45.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +18.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Preuss. Munster face Darmstadt in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Preuss. Munster a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Darmstadt 45%, so Darmstadt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Preuss. Munster and 1.8 for Darmstadt (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Preuss. Munster are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Darmstadt. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Preuss. Munster vs Darmstadt Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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