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Greuther Furth vs Dusseldorf Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Regular Season - 34 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:30

Greuther Furth

PPG 1.25 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Dusseldorf

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.4%0-24.7%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.0%1-111.6%1-27.5%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.1%2-19.1%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.7%3-14.8%3-23.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.7%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 40.0% 2.50 +15.8%

Draw 26.7% 27.0% 3.70 -0.7%

Away win 27.0% 39.2% 2.55 -18.7%

Over 2.5 55.6% 64.5% 1.55 -13.8%

Over 3.5 32.1% 42.6% 2.35 -24.6%

BTTS 59.7% 69.0% 1.45 -13.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -12.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 0–0 5.7%

#4 1–2 7.5%

#5 1–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Greuther Furth1.6

Dusseldorf1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.6% · O3.5 PROB 32.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GREUTHER FURTH · PPG 1.25

DUSSELDORF · PPG 0.81

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.81)

Win probability 1X2

Greuther Furth (H) 46.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +15.8%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -0.7%

Dusseldorf (A) 27.0%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -18.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Greuther Furth face Dusseldorf in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Greuther Furth a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Dusseldorf 27%, so Greuther Furth are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Greuther Furth and 1.3 for Dusseldorf (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Greuther Furth are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.81 for Dusseldorf. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.8%. This match finished 3-0.

Greuther Furth vs Dusseldorf Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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