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Hannover 96 vs Karlsruher SC Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Matchday 4 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 16:30

Hannover 96

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

LLW ··

UPCOMING

Karlsruher SC

PPG 1.05 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDL ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 56.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-16.3%0-23.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.7%1-111.1%1-26.4%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.5%2-19.7%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.9%3-15.6%3-23.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.7%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% 62.5% 1.60 -23.0%

Draw 24.2% 25.6% 3.90 -3.4%

Away win 27.7% 18.5% 5.40 +29.8%

Over 2.5 56.3% 69.0% 1.45 -18.4%

Over 3.5 35.0% 47.6% 2.10 -26.5%

BTTS 55.9% 69.0% 1.45 -18.9%

Home O1.5 49.9% 69.0% 1.45 -27.6%

Away O1.5 33.2% 37.0% 2.70 -10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.9%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 1–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hannover 961.7

Karlsruher SC1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.3% · O3.5 PROB 35.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HANNOVER 96 · PPG 1.30

KARLSRUHER SC · PPG 1.05

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Hannover 96 (H) 48.1%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -23.0%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -3.4%

Karlsruher SC (A) 27.7%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +29.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hannover 96 face Karlsruher SC in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hannover 96 a 48% chance, the draw 24% and Karlsruher SC 28%, so Hannover 96 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Hannover 96 and 1.1 for Karlsruher SC (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hannover 96 are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.05 for Karlsruher SC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +16.9%.

Hannover 96 vs Karlsruher SC Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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