Today / Germany - 2. Bundesliga / Darmstadt vs Paderborn

Darmstadt vs Paderborn Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Matchday 34 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:30

Darmstadt

PPG 2.19 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLDL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Paderborn

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 71% chance

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-16.4%0-24.2%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.4%1-111.0%1-27.2%1-33.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.1%2-19.3%2-26.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.1%3-15.3%3-23.5%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.3%4+-22.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.4% 29.4% 3.40 +64.6%

Draw 25.7% 24.4% 4.10 +3.2%

Away win 25.9% 52.6% 1.90 -30.5%

Over 2.5 59.1% 73.5% 1.36 -19.6%

Over 3.5 35.6% 52.6% 1.90 -32.4%

BTTS 59.7% 75.2% 1.33 -20.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 1–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Darmstadt1.7

Paderborn1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 35.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DARMSTADT · PPG 2.19

PADERBORN · PPG 1.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

71%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.19) > Away GOOD (1.63)

Win probability 1X2

Darmstadt (H) 48.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +64.6%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +3.2%

Paderborn (A) 25.9%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -30.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Darmstadt face Paderborn in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Darmstadt a 48% chance, the draw 26% and Paderborn 26%, so Darmstadt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Darmstadt and 1.3 for Paderborn (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Darmstadt are averaging 2.19 points per game versus 1.63 for Paderborn. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +64.6%. This match finished 0-2.

Darmstadt vs Paderborn Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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