Today / Germany - 2. Bundesliga / Elversberg vs Preuss. Munster

Elversberg vs Preuss. Munster Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Regular Season - 34 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:30

Elversberg

PPG 2.13 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Preuss. Munster

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-13.5%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.1%1-18.2%1-23.7%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.7%2-19.6%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.4%3-17.5%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-08.5%4+-17.7%4+-23.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.4% 83.3% 1.20 -27.5%

Draw 21.9% 16.1% 6.20 +21.5%

Away win 17.8% 6.7% 15.00 +100.2%

Over 2.5 61.4% 72.5% 1.38 -15.3%

Over 3.5 40.7% 51.8% 1.93 -21.4%

BTTS 52.6% 55.6% 1.80 -5.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -12.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 60% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–1 8.2%

#4 3–0✓ 8.4%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Elversberg2.3

Preuss. Munster0.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ELVERSBERG · PPG 2.13

PREUSS. MUNSTER · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs P(Home)=60.4%

Win probability 1X2

Elversberg (H) 60.4%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -27.5%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +21.5%

Preuss. Munster (A) 17.8%

ODDS 15.00 · IMPLIED 6.7% EV +100.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Elversberg face Preuss. Munster in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Elversberg a 60% chance, the draw 22% and Preuss. Munster 18%, so Elversberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Elversberg and 0.9 for Preuss. Munster (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Elversberg are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 0.81 for Preuss. Munster. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +100.2%. This match finished 3-0.

Elversberg vs Preuss. Munster Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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