Erovnuli Liga

GEORGIA · 48 MATCHES TRACKED · 21 APR 2026 – 24 JUN 2026

▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE

MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 48 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

41.7%

1X2

20/48

50.0%

O/U 2.5

24/48

45.8%

BTTS

22/48

43.8%

Exact score

21/48

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

62.5%

Hit rate

15/24

1.73

Avg odds

+6.7%

ROI

+1.6u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

BTTS · N=11 63.6% HIT · AVG 1.73 · +9.6% ROI

HOME WIN · N=7 71.4% HIT · AVG 1.67 · +22.0% ROI

OVER 2.5 · N=3 33.3% HIT · AVG 1.83 · -38.3% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.83 · -21.5% ROI

HOME O1.5 · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.60 · +60.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

67%

Hit

+22.7%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

62%

Hit

+4.4%

ROI

Match log

48 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

June 2026 // 8 PICKS · 5 HIT · 3 MISS

24 JUN Gagra vs Samgurali Over 2.5 +16% 0–0 MISS 23 JUN Dinamo Tbilisi vs Dinamo Batumi Over 2.5 +19% 2–1 HIT 22 JUN Dila Gori vs Rustavi — NO PICK 3–0 —22 JUN Torpedo Kutaisi vs Spaeri Over 2.5 +6% 0–0 MISS 18 JUN Meshakhte vs Gagra Away +6% 1–1 MISS 18 JUN Dinamo Tbilisi vs Samgurali BTTS -2% 5–3 HIT 17 JUN Torpedo Kutaisi vs Dinamo Batumi HO1.5 2–3 HIT 16 JUN Dila Gori vs Spaeri — NO PICK 3–1 —14 JUN Gagra vs Dinamo Tbilisi — NO PICK 2–1 —13 JUN Rustavi vs Meshakhte Home -15% 1–0 HIT 13 JUN Samgurali vs Torpedo Kutaisi BTTS -5% 2–1 HIT 12 JUN Dinamo Batumi vs Dila Gori — NO PICK 3–2 —

May 2026 // 0 PICKS · 0 HIT · 0 MISS

30 MAY Meshakhte vs Dinamo Tbilisi — NO PICK 1–6 —29 MAY Dila Gori vs Samgurali — NO PICK 2–3 —29 MAY Rustavi vs Spaeri — NO PICK 2–1 —