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Dila vs Torpedo Kutaisi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:00

Dila

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Torpedo Kutaisi

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-111.2%0-26.2%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.0%1-113.3%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.1%2-17.9%2-24.3%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.8%3-13.1%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% 43.5% 2.30 +2.1%

Draw 26.6% 33.3% 3.00 -12.1%

Away win 29.0% 36.4% 2.75 -12.2%

Over 2.5 50.2% 52.6% 1.90 -4.6%

Over 3.5 28.4% 33.7% 2.97 -9.4%

BTTS 53.0% 60.6% 1.65 -12.6%

Home O1.5 32.4% 45.5% 2.20 -28.7%

Away O1.5 35.6% 41.2% 2.43 -13.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 21.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 44% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 0–0 10.1%

#4 2–1 7.9%

#5 2–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dila1.2

Torpedo Kutaisi1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DILA · PPG 1.55

TORPEDO KUTAISI · PPG 1.20

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.08, combined xG 2.29 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dila (H) 44.4%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +2.1%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.1%

Torpedo Kutaisi (A) 29.0%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dila face Torpedo Kutaisi in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dila a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Torpedo Kutaisi 29%, so Dila are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Dila and 1.1 for Torpedo Kutaisi (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dila are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.20 for Torpedo Kutaisi. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +0.1%. This match finished 2-2.

Dila vs Torpedo Kutaisi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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