Today / Georgia - Erovnuli Liga / Meshakhte vs Samgurali

Meshakhte vs Samgurali Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 13:00

Meshakhte

PPG 0.56 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Samgurali

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-111.3%0-28.1%0-33.9%0-4+1.9%1 1-08.7%1-112.5%1-29.0%1-34.3%1-4+2.1%2 2-04.8%2-16.9%2-25.0%2-32.4%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.8%3-12.5%3-21.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.4% 24.4% 4.10 +28.7%

Draw 25.0% 29.0% 3.45 -8.3%

Away win 43.6% 58.8% 1.70 -25.9%

Over 2.5 53.5% 57.1% 1.75 -6.4%

Over 3.5 32.7% 33.7% 2.97 -2.9%

BTTS 54.6% 56.5% 1.77 -3.4%

Home O1.5 32.1% 28.6% 3.50 +12.3%

Away O1.5 43.7% 56.2% 1.78 -22.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -5.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.6%

A 44% / xG 1.1-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.9%

#3 0–1 11.3%

#4 1–2✓ 9.0%

#5 0–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Meshakhte1.1

Samgurali1.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MESHAKHTE · PPG 0.56

SAMGURALI · PPG 0.80

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.33 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Meshakhte (H) 31.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +28.7%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -8.3%

Samgurali (A) 43.6%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -25.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Meshakhte face Samgurali in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Meshakhte a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Samgurali 44%, so Samgurali are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Meshakhte and 1.4 for Samgurali (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Meshakhte are averaging 0.56 points per game versus 0.80 for Samgurali. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +21.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Meshakhte vs Samgurali Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Georgia - Erovnuli Liga Predictions