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Torpedo Kutaisi vs Saburtalo Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 17:00

Torpedo Kutaisi

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Saburtalo

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 58.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-19.0%0-25.1%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.1%1-112.6%1-27.1%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.8%2-18.8%2-25.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.6%3-14.1%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 38.2% 2.62 +16.1%

Draw 26.7% 32.1% 3.12 -10.0%

Away win 29.0% 41.2% 2.43 -17.7%

Over 2.5 51.4% 52.1% 1.92 -1.3%

Over 3.5 30.0% 31.3% 3.20 -4.0%

BTTS 54.5% 58.5% 1.71 -6.8%

Home O1.5 43.9% 40.3% 2.48 +8.9%

Away O1.5 34.7% 42.6% 2.35 -18.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -5.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.5%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.9%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Torpedo Kutaisi1.4

Saburtalo1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.4% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TORPEDO KUTAISI · PPG 1.50

SABURTALO · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Torpedo Kutaisi (H) 44.3%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +16.1%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.12 · IMPLIED 32.1% EV -10.0%

Saburtalo (A) 29.0%

ODDS 2.43 · IMPLIED 41.2% EV -17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Torpedo Kutaisi face Saburtalo in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Torpedo Kutaisi a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Saburtalo 29%, so Torpedo Kutaisi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Torpedo Kutaisi and 1.1 for Saburtalo (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Torpedo Kutaisi are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.67 for Saburtalo. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +8.9%.

Torpedo Kutaisi vs Saburtalo Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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