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Samgurali vs Dinamo Batumi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 17:00

Samgurali

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dinamo Batumi

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-15.1%0-23.7%0-31.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-06.8%1-19.7%1-27.0%1-33.3%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-19.2%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.1%3-15.8%3-24.2%3-32.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.3%4+-23.1%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% — — —

Draw 23.0% — — —

Away win 28.8% — — —

Over 2.5 63.1% — — —

Over 3.5 38.8% — — —

BTTS 61.6% — — —

Home O1.5 54.6% — — —

Away O1.5 42.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -5.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.6%

H 48% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Samgurali1.9

Dinamo Batumi1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SAMGURALI · PPG 1.89

DINAMO BATUMI · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.46 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Samgurali (H) 48.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Dinamo Batumi (A) 28.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Samgurali face Dinamo Batumi in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Samgurali a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Dinamo Batumi 29%, so Samgurali are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Samgurali and 1.4 for Dinamo Batumi (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Samgurali are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.00 for Dinamo Batumi.

Samgurali vs Dinamo Batumi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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