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Dinamo Tbilisi vs Rustavi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 15:00

Dinamo Tbilisi

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rustavi

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.46, combined xG 2.28 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-19.3%0-24.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.0%1-112.8%1-25.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.6%2-18.7%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.4%3-14.0%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% — — —

Draw 27.3% — — —

Away win 24.2% — — —

Over 2.5 49.9% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 37.9% — — —

Away O1.5 24.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -5.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 10.2%

#3 1–0 14.0%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dinamo Tbilisi1.4

Rustavi0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DINAMO TBILISI · PPG 1.50

RUSTAVI · PPG 1.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.46, combined xG 2.28 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dinamo Tbilisi (H) 48.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Rustavi (A) 24.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Tbilisi face Rustavi in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Tbilisi a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Rustavi 24%, so Dinamo Tbilisi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Dinamo Tbilisi and 0.9 for Rustavi (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Tbilisi are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.10 for Rustavi.

Dinamo Tbilisi vs Rustavi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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