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Gagra vs FC Iberia 1999 Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Matchday 23 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 15:00

Gagra

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

FC Iberia 1999

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.39, combined xG 2.47 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-112.1%0-28.6%0-34.1%0-4+2.0%1 1-08.8%1-112.6%1-29.0%1-34.3%1-4+2.1%2 2-04.6%2-16.5%2-24.7%2-32.2%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.6%3-12.3%3-21.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.2% — — —

Draw 25.0% — — —

Away win 44.8% — — —

Over 2.5 53.8% — — —

Over 3.5 31.6% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 30.8% — — —

Away O1.5 42.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 21.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–1 12.1%

#3 1–2 9.0%

#4 0–2 8.6%

#5 0–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gagra1.0

FC Iberia 19991.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GAGRA · PPG 1.00

FC IBERIA 1999 · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.39, combined xG 2.47 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gagra (H) 30.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

FC Iberia 1999 (A) 44.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gagra face FC Iberia 1999 in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gagra a 30% chance, the draw 25% and FC Iberia 1999 45%, so FC Iberia 1999 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Gagra and 1.4 for FC Iberia 1999 (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gagra are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.50 for FC Iberia 1999. This match finished 2-0.

Gagra vs FC Iberia 1999 Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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