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Rustavi vs Gagra Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 17:00

Rustavi

PPG 2.40 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWD

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Gagra

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.3%0-18.4%0-22.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.4%1-111.9%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.2%2-18.4%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.7%3-13.9%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-11.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% 55.6% 1.80 -8.7%

Draw 26.3% 33.3% 3.00 -12.7%

Away win 23.0% 25.0% 4.00 -4.8%

Over 2.5 43.0% 51.3% 1.95 -16.2%

Over 3.5 21.7% 31.3% 3.20 -18.3%

BTTS 47.6% 54.1% 1.85 -11.9%

Home O1.5 40.0% 52.4% 1.91 -23.6%

Away O1.5 17.9% 29.2% 3.42 -23.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 21.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.6%

H 51% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.4%

#2 0–0 12.3%

#3 2–0 12.2%

#4 1–1 11.9%

#5 0–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rustavi1.4

Gagra0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.0% · O3.5 PROB 21.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RUSTAVI · PPG 2.40

GAGRA · PPG 1.30

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rustavi (H) 50.7%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -8.7%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.7%

Gagra (A) 23.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rustavi face Gagra in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rustavi a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Gagra 23%, so Rustavi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Rustavi and 0.7 for Gagra (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rustavi are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.30 for Gagra. This match finished 3-0.

Rustavi vs Gagra Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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