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Dinamo Batumi vs Spaeri Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 17:00

Dinamo Batumi

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Spaeri

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-15.7%0-23.7%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.1%1-110.5%1-26.7%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-19.5%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.5%3-15.8%3-23.7%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-14.0%4+-22.6%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 58.8% 1.70 -13.3%

Draw 22.7% 27.8% 3.60 -11.0%

Away win 26.3% 25.0% 4.00 +3.1%

Over 2.5 62.0% 57.8% 1.73 +7.3%

Over 3.5 39.3% 37.6% 2.66 +4.5%

BTTS 60.8% 61.3% 1.63 -0.9%

Home O1.5 52.1% 57.1% 1.75 -8.8%

Away O1.5 36.6% 34.1% 2.93 +7.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 21.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.8%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.4%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 1–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dinamo Batumi1.8

Spaeri1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DINAMO BATUMI · PPG 1.80

SPAERI · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Dinamo Batumi (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -13.3%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.0%

Spaeri (A) 26.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Batumi face Spaeri in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Batumi a 51% chance, the draw 23% and Spaeri 26%, so Dinamo Batumi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Dinamo Batumi and 1.3 for Spaeri (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Batumi are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.00 for Spaeri. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +12.6%. This match finished 3-0.

Dinamo Batumi vs Spaeri Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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