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Spaeri vs Samgurali Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:00

Spaeri

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLL

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Samgurali

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-14.3%0-22.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.1%1-19.1%1-25.8%1-32.5%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.5%2-19.6%2-26.2%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.3%3-16.7%3-24.3%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-15.8%4+-23.7%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 40.0% 2.50 +32.8%

Draw 22.6% 34.5% 2.90 -20.7%

Away win 24.3% 38.2% 2.62 -21.8%

Over 2.5 62.3% 50.0% 2.00 +24.6%

Over 3.5 39.4% 30.5% 3.28 +29.2%

BTTS 61.3% 57.1% 1.75 +7.3%

Home O1.5 59.6% 41.2% 2.43 +44.8%

Away O1.5 37.3% 40.8% 2.45 -8.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 21.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.3%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 1–2 5.8%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spaeri2.1

Samgurali1.3

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SPAERI · PPG 1.20

SAMGURALI · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Spaeri (H) 53.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +32.8%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -20.7%

Samgurali (A) 24.3%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spaeri face Samgurali in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spaeri a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Samgurali 24%, so Spaeri are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Spaeri and 1.3 for Samgurali (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spaeri are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.00 for Samgurali. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +45.8%. This match finished 3-4.

Spaeri vs Samgurali Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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